Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 138.674416 165.287229 197.451708 239.767624 294.856624 365.420860 4.648054e+02
2025-04-20 111.559363 144.724040 189.791102 257.663185 361.391243 521.621257 8.054281e+02
2025-04-27 95.725778 131.737825 184.959601 273.746630 428.180558 709.042785 1.329779e+03
2025-05-04 84.404916 121.498835 180.015948 286.080680 492.133799 927.239941 2.129931e+03
2025-05-11 75.431346 112.542887 174.268452 294.216078 550.993035 1174.438342 3.345988e+03
2025-05-18 67.694132 103.948143 166.902862 296.593413 598.751679 1433.384853 5.117258e+03
2025-05-25 60.652405 95.274241 157.498550 291.949272 628.434771 1671.072184 7.485301e+03
2025-06-01 54.553559 87.305375 147.869671 284.115694 646.979603 1895.484798 1.071099e+04
2025-06-08 49.422809 80.364848 139.005490 275.670684 660.601597 2121.988126 1.531972e+04
2025-06-15 48.262122 80.523799 144.165436 301.482853 789.390684 3006.473386 3.700593e+04
2025-06-22 45.226804 76.715199 140.465032 304.315130 847.174932 3661.267370 7.335977e+04
2025-06-29 42.979200 74.155028 139.000219 312.692648 931.156567 4666.131787 1.919764e+05
2025-07-06 39.814639 69.545821 132.614437 306.788950 961.886596 5436.465010 4.836685e+05
2025-07-13 39.033481 69.693547 137.073289 333.868289 1155.033244 8376.515828 1.407530e+07
2025-07-20 37.984456 69.142154 139.802551 356.971886 1357.191584 12859.363569 NaN
2025-07-27 36.693856 67.909655 140.658870 374.576763 1554.695179 19464.438274 NaN
2025-08-03 35.224406 66.112282 139.793608 386.203985 1735.944541 28871.679656 NaN
2025-08-10 33.546127 63.667671 136.869920 389.607423 1872.791280 40674.448085 NaN
2025-08-17 31.644327 60.532401 131.669834 382.966519 1934.527822 52193.677568 NaN
2025-08-24 29.755728 57.264639 125.698964 371.792374 1953.705124 63516.734042 NaN
2025-08-31 28.010385 54.186103 119.877269 359.786028 1957.722778 75934.091159 NaN
2025-09-07 27.978525 55.119668 125.378240 396.613211 2458.565395 209233.399206 NaN
2025-09-14 26.924773 53.513109 123.388258 400.677320 2658.056482 379980.084173 NaN